Trade Wars: Escalation or Coming Détente?
Brandywine Global and Western Asset address the potential economic and investment implications of altering existing trade relationships.
Uncertainty about the future of global trade has certainly been evident in financial markets this year — and the highly fluid and unpredictable nature of the current environment will likely keep investors on edge until the outlook clears.
The Latest Perspectives
Robert Abad of Western Asset offers in-depth analysis that includes:
A review of the last major trade war initiated by passage of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff.
A look at the primary trade relationships and industries most likely susceptible to disruption.
An analysis of the 16 top global credit sectors – created with input from Western Asset's global investment team on the 'front lines' – that ranks their respective degrees of trade vulnerability.
Gary Herbert of Brandywine Global provides analysis and outlook based on global trade volumes.
While tariffs and non-trade barriers can and will impact trade volumes and prices, we believe volumes will only be modestly impacted by the current tensions.
Despite the protectionist political rhetoric, we anticipate there will be freer and more fair trade in the coming years.
Yet that doesn’t preclude some short-term pain from capital markets as the details of trade agreements are sorted out.
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