When Will Small-Caps Outperform Large-Caps?

When Will Small-Caps Outperform Large-Caps?

A look back at history supports the idea of a shift in leadership to small-cap stocks.


How have large-caps and small-caps performed recently?

Something unusual has happened over the last year with regard to large-cap versus small-cap returns. Historically, they tend to move together, going up or down, though in different magnitudes. Over the last year, large-caps have advanced while small-caps have declined. To give you a sense of how unusual that is, over the past 20 years, it’s less than 7% of the time that we have had a trailing 12-month period with that kind of return divergence.

Rare Occurrence: Large-Caps Rose and Small-Caps Fell

In Trailing 1-Year Periods from 6/30/99 to 6/30/19

Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/19. Small-Caps represented by the Russell 2000 Index and Large-Caps by the Russell 1000 Index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged, and not available for direct investment. Index returns do not include fees or sales charges. This information is provided for illustrative purposes only and does not reflect the performance of an actual investment.

What do you think may happen next?

There are 14 periods where we have subsequent 12-month periods after this kind of large-cap/small-cap divergence. In 13 of those 14 periods, small-caps outperformed large-caps. It’s over 90% of the time, and the return differential was over 300 basis points. Now does that in any way guarantee that that’s going to happen over the next 12-months? It does not. However, it does suggest that the probabilities are pretty good for a leadership shift to small-cap stocks.

What Happened After 12-Month Periods When Large-Caps Rose and Small-Caps Fell?

16 out of 229 Trailing 1-Year Periods from 6/30/99 to 6/30/19

Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/19. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged, and not available for direct investment. Index returns do not include fees or sales charges. This information is provided for illustrative purposes only and does not reflect the performance of an actual investment.

What would be the cause of this leadership shift?

There are two macro conditions that many investors may not be aware of, that have historically had an effect on small- versus large-cap performance. The first of those is economic cyclicality, measured more precisely by the ISM Manufacturing Index. So, in periods when the ISM Manufacturing Index is going down, it’s generally a better period for large-caps versus small-caps, and that’s what we’ve had since last year. However, when ISM Manufacturing Index is going up, small-caps have beaten large-caps over two-thirds of the time, and by several percentage points. So, if we are set for a reversal in that, it could also be good for small-caps.

When the ISM Manufacturing Index Rose, Small-Cap Outperformed Large-Cap

Russell 2000 vs Russell 1000 Trailing Monthly Rolling 1-Year Returns From 6/30/99 through 6/30/19

Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/19. Note: The ISM Manufacturing Index rose in 111 of 229 periods. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged, and not available for direct investment. Index returns do not include fees or sales charges. This information is provided for illustrative purposes only and does not reflect the performance of an actual investment.

The final indicator that historically has had an effect is the direction of interest rates, specifically 10-year yields. In periods like we’ve experienced when the 10-year yield is declining, that tends to be a headwind in small-caps versus large-cap returns. But at some point in the future, that’s going to reverse. And in periods when the 10-year yield has risen, small-caps have beaten large-caps over 70% of the time.

When the 10-Year Treasury Yield was Rising, Small-Cap Outperformed Large-Cap

Russell 2000 vs Russell 1000 Trailing Monthly Rolling 1-Year Returns From 6/30/99 through 6/30/19

Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/19. Note: 10-Year Treasury Yields rose in 86 of 229 periods. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged, and not available for direct investment. Index returns do not include fees or sales charges. This information is provided for illustrative purposes only and does not reflect the performance of an actual investment.

So, taken together, we think there are a number of indicators which suggests the probabilities are pretty good for a shift in leadership to small-cap stocks.


Definitions:

A basis point (bps) is one one-hundredth of one percentage point (1/100% or 0.01%).

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the US manufacturing sector measures sentiment based on survey data collected from a representative panel of manufacturing and services firms. PMI levels greater than 50 indicate expansion; below 50, contraction

The Russell 1000 Index measures the performance of the 1,000 largest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 92% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index.

The Russell 2000 Index is an unmanaged list of common stocks that is frequently used as a general performance measure of U.S. stocks of small and/or midsize companies.

U.S. Treasuries are direct debt obligations issued and backed by the "full faith and credit" of the U.S. government. The U.S. government guarantees the principal and interest payments on U.S. Treasuries when the securities are held to maturity. Unlike U.S. Treasury securities, debt securities issued by the federal agencies and instrumentalities and related investments may or may not be backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. Even when the U.S. government guarantees principal and interest payments on securities, this guarantee does not apply to losses resulting from declines in the market value of these securities.

Top

Important Information

 

All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.

The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested, and can be affected by changes in interest rates, in exchange rates, general market conditions, political, social and economic developments and other variable factors. Investment involves risks including but not limited to, possible delays in payments and loss of income or capital. Neither Legg Mason nor any of its affiliates guarantees any rate of return or the return of capital invested. 

Equity securities are subject to price fluctuation and possible loss of principal. Fixed-income securities involve interest rate, credit, inflation and reinvestment risks; and possible loss of principal. As interest rates rise, the value of fixed income securities falls.

International investments are subject to special risks including currency fluctuations, social, economic and political uncertainties, which could increase volatility. These risks are magnified in emerging markets.

Commodities and currencies contain heightened risk that include market, political, regulatory, and natural conditions and may not be suitable for all investors.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Please note that an investor cannot invest directly in an index. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges.

The opinions and views expressed herein are not intended to be relied upon as a prediction or forecast of actual future events or performance, guarantee of future results, recommendations or advice.  Statements made in this material are not intended as buy or sell recommendations of any securities. Forward-looking statements are subject to uncertainties that could cause actual developments and results to differ materially from the expectations expressed. This information has been prepared from sources believed reliable but the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. Information and opinions expressed by either Legg Mason or its affiliates are current as at the date indicated, are subject to change without notice, and do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual investors.

The information in this material is confidential and proprietary and may not be used other than by the intended user. Neither Legg Mason or its affiliates or any of their officer or employee of Legg Mason accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this material or its contents. This material may not be reproduced, distributed or published without prior written permission from Legg Mason. Distribution of this material may be restricted in certain jurisdictions. Any persons coming into possession of this material should seek advice for details of, and observe such restrictions (if any).

This material may have been prepared by an advisor or entity affiliated with an entity mentioned below through common control and ownership by Legg Mason, Inc.  Unless otherwise noted the “$” (dollar sign) represents U.S. Dollars.

This material is approved for distribution in those countries and to those recipients listed below. Note: this material may not be available in all regions listed.

All investors and eligible counterparties in Europe, the UK, Switzerland:

In Europe (excluding UK and Switzerland), this financial promotion is issued by Legg Mason Investments (Ireland) Limited, registered office 6th Floor, Building Three, Number One Ballsbridge, 126 Pembroke Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, D04 EP27. Registered in Ireland, Company No. 271887. Authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland.

All Qualified Investors in Switzerland:
In Switzerland, this financial promotion is issued by Legg Mason Investments (Switzerland) GmbH, authorised by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA.  Investors in Switzerland: The representative in Switzerland is FIRST INDEPENDENT FUND SERVICES LTD., Klausstrasse 33, 8008 Zurich, Switzerland and the paying agent in Switzerland is NPB Neue Privat Bank AG, Limmatquai 1, 8024 Zurich, Switzerland. Copies of the Articles of Association, the Prospectus, the Key Investor Information documents and the annual and semi-annual reports of the Company may be obtained free of charge from the representative in Switzerland.

All investors in the UK:
In the UK this financial promotion is issued by Legg Mason Investments (Europe) Limited, registered office 201 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3AB. Registered in England and Wales, Company No. 1732037. Authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Client Services +44 (0)207 070 7444

All Investors in Hong Kong and Singapore:

This material is provided by Legg Mason Asset Management Hong Kong Limited in Hong Kong and Legg Mason Asset Management Singapore Pte. Limited (Registration Number (UEN): 200007942R) in Singapore.

This material has not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong or Singapore.

All Investors in the People’s Republic of China ("PRC"):

This material is provided by Legg Mason Asset Management Hong Kong Limited to intended recipients in the PRC.  The content of this document is only for Press or the PRC investors investing in the QDII Product offered by PRC’s commercial bank in accordance with the regulation of China Banking Regulatory Commission.  Investors should read the offering document prior to any subscription.  Please seek advice from PRC’s commercial banks and/or other professional advisors, if necessary. Please note that Legg Mason and its affiliates are the Managers of the offshore funds invested by QDII Products only.  Legg Mason and its affiliates are not authorized by any regulatory authority to conduct business or investment activities in China.

This material has not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in the PRC.

Distributors and existing investors in Korea and Distributors in Taiwan:

This material is provided by Legg Mason Asset Management Hong Kong Limited to eligible recipients in Korea and by Legg Mason Investments (Taiwan) Limited (Registration Number: (98) Jin Guan Tou Gu Xin Zi Di 001; Address: Suite E, 55F, Taipei 101 Tower, 7, Xin Yi Road, Section 5, Taipei 110, Taiwan, R.O.C.; Tel: (886) 2-8722 1666) in Taiwan. Legg Mason Investments (Taiwan) Limited operates and manages its business independently.

This material has not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Korea or Taiwan.

All Investors in the Americas:

This material is provided by Legg Mason Investor Services LLC, a U.S. registered Broker-Dealer, which includes Legg Mason Americas International. Legg Mason Investor Services, LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC, and all entities mentioned are subsidiaries of Legg Mason, Inc.

All Investors in Australia and New Zealand:

This document is issued by Legg Mason Asset Management Australia Limited (ABN 76 004 835 839, AFSL 204827).  The information in this document is of a general nature only and is not intended to be, and is not, a complete or definitive statement of matters described in it. It has not been prepared to take into account the investment objectives, financial objectives or particular needs of any particular person.

Outperformance does not imply positive results.

Yields and dividends represent past performance and there is no guarantee they will continue to be paid.

Forecasts are inherently limited and should not be relied upon as indicators of actual or future performance.

Investments in small-cap and mid-cap companies involve a higher degree of risk and volatility than investments in larger, more established companies.

U.S. Treasuries are direct debt obligations issued and backed by the "full faith and credit" of the U.S. government. The U.S. government guarantees the principal and interest payments on U.S. Treasuries when the securities are held to maturity. Unlike U.S. Treasury securities, debt securities issued by the federal agencies and instrumentalities and related investments may or may not be backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. Even when the U.S. government guarantees principal and interest payments on securities, this guarantee does not apply to losses resulting from declines in the market value of these securities.