Market Outlook
Featured Market Outlook
Equity markets
A Pullback, Not a Crash
The current environment is similar to several previous periods where market weakness and substantial P/E compression occurred against a backdrop of economic and earnings strength. Historically, these periods have been followed by solid stock rebounds.
Around the Curve
Emerging Markets: Three Keys to Growth
We believe three key factors – all necessary – could facilitate the flow of capital back into emerging market assets in 2019: The Fed; fiscal and monetary policy in China; and U.S.-China trade relations.
Interest Rates
The Fed: No Pause Now, But...
The Fed raised its target rate on Dec 19, as expected -- ignoring pleas for a pause that would relieve current pressures on markets fearing slower growth. Our managers discuss why and how the Fed's plans could change.
Q4 Market Commentary
Global Expansion: What's Going Right
Continuing global expansion is the priority for policymakers worldwide; steps are being taken in the right direction so far.
Unconstrained Fixed Income Solutions
Emerging Markets – Emerged
Emerging Markets have overtaken developed markets in world output and their share is only forecast to increase. Read here about the potential opportunities investors may find in them and how an unconstrained approach may help.
Market Outlook
Brexit: Deal, No Deal, Or Something in Between?
A wide spectrum of potential Brexit scenarios still remains. On balance, our base case is for Parliament ultimately to support a “Plan B” deal. Under this outcome or an “extend” scenario, the probabilities now tilt toward a softer or later Brexit; the odds of a "no-deal” Brexit have fallen.
Mid Week Bond Update
U.S. Rates: Calmer Year Ahead for the Fed?
The Fed and the markets are learning how to communicate; parts of the U.S. yield curve are steepening; Brexit's impact on currencies and asset prices follows its own logic.
![How the Fed might approach the year ahead: FED OUTLOOK FOR 2019: "WAIT AND SEE"](/content/legg-mason/en-us/insights/market-outlook/fed-outlook-for-2019-wait-and-see/_jcr_content/image.img.jpg/1547578770314.jpg "How the Fed might approach the year ahead: FED OUTLOOK FOR 2019: "WAIT AND SEE"")
How the Fed might approach the year ahead
Fed Outlook for 2019: "Wait and See"
We expect that the Fed will eventually adopt a “wait-and-see” strategy this year; we expect at most one more rate hike in 2019.
Mid Week Bond Update
U.S. Economy: December Follow-Through
For the U.S., December showed a strong finish to a year of growth – at least for job seekers.
Markets Now: Review and Outlook
Our economic outlook is in slightly negative territory as of the end of December – a rebound from a far more negative position at the end of November, largely due to a recovery in global trade data.
Around the Curve
Fed balance sheet: Watching paint dry?
Given what's actually in the Fed's inventory of securities, is the current plan for selling it off too risky?
2019 Outlook: Shifting Signals
Explore what our 9 managers are saying about the markets in 2019.
Around the Curve
Take a Break, Mr. Powell
We believe the Fed should pause and acknowledge that what it's done so far is affecting the economy – perhaps more than stated so far.
Mid Week Bond Update
Rates and the Fed: Unconventional wisdom
In the wake of the Fed’s decision on Wednesday afternoon, it’s useful to step back and take a broad view of how the central bank’s policy moves could impact interest rates in the long run.
Around the Curve
Watch the Fed's Balance Sheet
What the Federal Reserve (Fed) does on rate policy next year will be important. What it decides for the balance sheet will be more important.
Mid Week Bond Update
Emerging Market Debt: The Coupon Challenge
EM Income is a plus for investors; for EM economies, the issue is more nuanced.
Around the Curve
My Coupon, Our Challenge
The flow of coupon income from Emerging Market bonds is a challenge for these economies, and for those who invest in them.
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