Market Outlook

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Market Outlook

Market Outlook
Jan 16
Market Outlook

Brexit: Deal, No Deal, Or Something in Between?

January 16, 2019

A wide spectrum of potential Brexit scenarios still remains. On balance, our base case is for Parliament ultimately to support a “Plan B” deal. Under this outcome or an “extend” scenario, the probabilities now tilt toward a softer or later Brexit; the odds of a "no-deal” Brexit have fallen.

Market Outlook
Jan 16
Market Outlook

Mid Week Bond Update

U.S. Rates: Calmer Year Ahead for the Fed?

January 16, 2019

The Fed and the markets are learning how to communicate; parts of the U.S. yield curve are steepening; Brexit's impact on currencies and asset prices follows its own logic.

Market Outlook
Jan 15
Market Outlook

How the Fed might approach the year ahead

Fed Outlook for 2019: "Wait and See"

January 15, 2019

We expect that the Fed will eventually adopt a “wait-and-see” strategy this year; we expect at most one more rate hike in 2019.

Market Outlook
Jan 09
Market Outlook

Mid Week Bond Update

U.S. Economy: December Follow-Through

January 09, 2019

For the U.S., December showed a strong finish to a year of growth – at least for job seekers.

Market Outlook
Jan 08
Market Outlook

Markets Now: Review and Outlook

January 08, 2019

Our economic outlook is in slightly negative territory as of the end of December – a rebound from a far more negative position at the end of November, largely due to a recovery in global trade data.

Market Outlook
Jan 07
Market Outlook

Around the Curve

Fed balance sheet: Watching paint dry?

January 07, 2019

Given what's actually in the Fed's inventory of securities, is the current plan for selling it off too risky?

Market Outlook
Jan 01
Market Outlook

2019 Outlook: Shifting Signals

January 01, 2019

Explore what our 9 managers are saying about the markets in 2019.

Market Outlook
Dec 20
Market Outlook

Around the Curve

Take a Break, Mr. Powell

December 20, 2018

We believe the Fed should pause and acknowledge that what it's done so far is affecting the economy – perhaps more than stated so far.

Market Outlook
Dec 19
Market Outlook

Mid Week Bond Update

Rates and the Fed: Unconventional wisdom

December 19, 2018

In the wake of the Fed’s decision on Wednesday afternoon, it’s useful to step back and take a broad view of how the central bank’s policy moves could impact interest rates in the long run.

Market Outlook
Dec 17
Market Outlook

Around the Curve

Watch the Fed's Balance Sheet

December 17, 2018

What the Federal Reserve (Fed) does on rate policy next year will be important. What it decides for the balance sheet will be more important.

Market Outlook
Dec 12
Market Outlook

Mid Week Bond Update

Emerging Market Debt: The Coupon Challenge

December 12, 2018

EM Income is a plus for investors; for EM economies, the issue is more nuanced.

Market Outlook
Dec 11
Market Outlook

Around the Curve

My Coupon, Our Challenge

December 11, 2018

The flow of coupon income from Emerging Market bonds is a challenge for these economies, and for those who invest in them.

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