Market Outlook
Featured Market Outlook
International Small Caps Now
Thoughts on Brexit, tariffs, and the need to look beyond a company's home country to understand the true scope of its business.
The Fed Raises Rates
FOMC: Two More Hikes in 2018?
The FOMC decision to raise its target rate to 2.0% was not surprising, but the Fed meeting signaled the likelihood of two hikes in 2018.
Winners and Losers in Small-cap Retail
Bill Hench looks at the dynamics in the retail industry and outlines the factors that he thinks will help some companies to survive and thrive.
Policy Matters
The Fed Reaction Function
The May FOMC minutes reaffirmed our view that the Fed’s reaction function will be less hawkish than feared.
Stock Sell-Off: Fears Vs. Fundamentals
Elevated valuations, investor complacency and the prospect of faster-than-expected inflation combined to trigger the equity selloff this week -- but with economic fundamentals still solid, our investment managers counsel patience amid the current volatility.
Market Outlook
Third Quarter Outlook
Market & Strategy Update: Quick Take
Western Asset CIO Ken Leech surveys the state of global bond markets, sharing views on growth, inflation and the impact of trade and monetary policy.
Mid Week Bond Update
The Fed Playbook: For Now
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s July 17th testimony before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee featured a slight, yet unmistakable shift in tone about the pace and level of future rate hikes...
MidWeek Bond Update
Brexit, Mexico, FX: What's Next?
Recent moves by the U.S. have encouraged talk of an end to the post-1945 world order in commerce and diplomacy. But business leaders and financial markets have reacted with relative calm, suggesting that the current chatter could be overdone.
U.S. Equities
Beyond the Wall of Worry
Though trade war tensions could sidetrack investors, history suggests markets should rally after midterm elections -- with recession risks low going into Trump's third year in office.
Mid Week Bond Update
Back From the Brink: A Cautionary Tale?
The agreement announced June 22 between Greece and the rest of the European Union deferred repayment of older bailout loans by ten years...
Mid Week Bond Update
Inflation: Lower for the Duration?
Inflation is famously difficult to measure – and could very well be lower than some may assume – a potential benefit for investors with longer-than-benchmark duration.
Mid Week Bond Update
The Fed, the ECB, the UK: Foregone Confusion
Few doubted that the FOMC would raise its Fed Funds target rate to 2.0% on June 13th, or that the ECB would remain resolutely vague about the timing of its next hike and the wind-down of its bond-buying program in its monthly press conference on June 14th. For Brexit, the only certainty is...
Mid Week Bond Update
Short-Term Money: Rates Call the Tune
Liquid assets with short-dated maturities – bank deposits, overnight lending, money-market instruments and the like – flow toward the highest rate of return available...
Uncertainty Weighs on Italian Banks
Italy’s failure to form a government has caused bond spreads to widen sharply and could cause the ECB to delay its rate tightening plans. If so, that could pressure many European financial stocks and make the outlook for bank earnings growth much less bullish.
Mid Week Bond Update
When Italy Sneezes: Highly Contagious
Italian politics, a sideshow earlier in 2018, jumped into the center ring over the weekend...
Mid Week Bond Update
Emerging Markets: Beyond the Dollar
The dollar pulled back somewhat from its mid-April climb, but the narrative of a rising greenback has gripped the imagination...
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