Market Outlook
Featured Market Outlook
![Further hikes are unlikely: "FED LISTENS" IN 2019](/content/legg-mason/en-us/insights/market-outlook/the-fed-listens-in-2019/_jcr_content/image.img.jpg/1553027106314.jpg "Further hikes are unlikely: "FED LISTENS" IN 2019")
Further hikes are unlikely
"Fed Listens" in 2019
The upcoming "Fed Listens" schedule of public events is unlikely to result in major policy changes. We also doubt the upcoming shift in the Fed’s inflation strategy will have any significant effect on inflation expectations, except to make rate hikes even less likely in 2019.
Market Moves And Mood Swings
Recent small-cap performance may have more to do with investors’ moods than fundamentals
Markets Now: Review and Outlook
Improvements in global trade data and building permits helped lift our economic outlook in February versus January, but it remains in negative territory overall.
Recession indicators update
Evolution of a Downturn
Financial markets may be sending mixed signals, but our Recession Risk Dashboard still signals expansion -- with business activity and consumer health showing few signs of stress.
Around the Curve
Of Elephants, Mice and Emerging Markets
The trade tensions between China and the U.S. affect EM economies as well as the world's larger trading blocs.
Market Outlook
Around the Curve
Brexit: Beginning of the End? or...
Is the Brexit story about to end, or about to begin?
Mid Week Bond Update
Brexit Pulse: Mostly Steady
Sailing into Brexit's uncharted waters, the UK economy is largely shipshape; High-yield energy bonds reflect uncertainty over crude oil prices; TIPS yields reflect falling inflation expectations in the shadow of the FOMC's latest report.
Mid Week Bond Update
Rates: Upbeat Consumers vs. Downbeat Fed?
Could a rise in consumer sentiment influence the Fed's plans?
Mid Week Bond Update
Sovereign Bonds: The ESG Factor
A timely look at how ESG principles might factor into sovereign debt analysis; bond investors got some upside news on the U.S. economy; China's latest goals could benefit debtholders.
Mid Week Bond Update
U.S. Rate Policy: All Clear?
As the Fed's policies stabilize, markets appear to be calming down; Treasury term spreads are widening above 5-year maturities, but for different reasons at different intervals; China's government bond yields reflect the current policies of promoting growth.
Bond Market Outlook
A Long Leash for Central Banks
Subdued core inflation allows central banks a very long leash to keep interest rates low. Further interest rate hikes are likely off the table until growth picks up enough to push inflation rates higher.
Mid Week Bond Update
U.S. Retail Sales: Worth the Wait?
December retail sales in the U.S. disappointed; credit conditions in Asia ex Japan improved; U.S. Treasury term premium continued to drop
Mid Week Bond Update
U.S. Rates vs. the Market: Resistance is Futile
Financial markets provided the Fed with a lesson on expectations.
Mid Week Bond Update
EM Bonds: Getting Paid
Some EM countries are less vulnerable than others to foreign creditors; U.S. High Yield spreads rise, along with returns; Eurozone PMIs are on the downswing.
Recession indicators update
Inflationary Pressures Building
Our Recession Risk Dashboard still signals economic expansion, but faster wage growth has moved that indicator from green to yellow, due to potential pressure on corporate margins.
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