Despite real economic challenges, the risk of a significant recession in Europe remains low -- barring monetary, fiscal or banking policy mistakes in the wake of the EU elections.
Many investors have historically been hesitant to invest in emerging markets, concerned about currency volatility, political instability and an over-reliance on commodities. Yet this view is increasingly outdated as the sector evolves and becomes more resilient.
Navigating Emerging Markets
Only a few months ago, NAFTA (the North American Free Trade Agreement) looked dead in the water. The US seemed hell-bent on walking away from the 24-year-old deal, while Canada and Mexico were unwilling to concede any ground.
A huddle of negative factors cooled investor sentiment towards emerging markets in 2018. Some of these factors have reversed and more could follow.
Chart of the Week
Chart courtesy of ClearBridge Investments. Source: Bloomberg, as of 5/31/19. Returns are cumulative and based on price movement only, and do not include the reinvestment of dividends. +101% for S&P 500 measures 10/09/02-10/12/2007 and +218% for MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. measures 3/12/03-10/31/07. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged, and not available for direct investment. Index returns do not include fees or sales charges. This information is provided for illustrative purposes only and does not reflect the performance of an actual investment.
Chart of the Week
China’s latest tariffs focus on U.S. agricultural exports; financial markets are pricing in at least one Fed rate cut this year; U.S. consumers’ debt load reached $13.67 trillion, with student debt outstripping auto loans.
Will today’s trade tensions permanently disrupt global value chains and lead to a new Cold War?
The Indian mobile communications market has consolidated around three players.
Largely a developed market phenomenon so far, incremental growth in REITs is likely to come from the emerging Asia markets.
Policy changes that relax residency rules in smaller Chinese cities could become an important driver of structural growth, impacting a range of sectors.
2018 Stewardship Report
Martin Currie releases its annual stewardship report detailing its commitment to ESG and activities to advance responsible corporate stewardship throughout the year
Food and beverage companies face both threats and opportunities from societal change on how we regulate what we eat and drink.
Europe's political tensions pose questions for investors; Martin Currie's Michael Browne rates the risks to stability posed by the biggest EU economies now.
India’s ruling political party, the BJP, remains the front-runner ahead of this year’s election but may have seen its popularity peak. What are the implications for investors if it fails to win enough votes to govern on its own?
A sharply rising population and a government directed move to boost housing in Indonesia is highly favourable for domestic concrete producers.
Price-to-book ratios for Asian equities are well below the long-term average, even after January's bounceback in valuations.
Makers of semiconductors are seeing valuations hit amid a cyclical downturn, but the future long-term growth picture remains intact.
The outlook for European stocks appears more mixed than a year ago -- with similar potential for both very good and very bad outcomes based on the macro environment.
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