Featured Insights
![Further hikes are unlikely: "FED LISTENS" IN 2019](/content/legg-mason/en-us/insights/market-outlook/the-fed-listens-in-2019/_jcr_content/image.img.jpg/1553027106314.jpg "Further hikes are unlikely: "FED LISTENS" IN 2019")
Further hikes are unlikely
"Fed Listens" in 2019
The upcoming "Fed Listens" schedule of public events is unlikely to result in major policy changes. We also doubt the upcoming shift in the Fed’s inflation strategy will have any significant effect on inflation expectations, except to make rate hikes even less likely in 2019.
Recession indicators update
Evolution of a Downturn
Financial markets may be sending mixed signals, but our Recession Risk Dashboard still signals expansion -- with business activity and consumer health showing few signs of stress.
Market Moves And Mood Swings
Recent small-cap performance may have more to do with investors’ moods than fundamentals
Municipal Market Update: February
Western Asset examines recent trends in the muni bond market and provides its outlook about conditions ahead.
Markets Now: Review and Outlook
Our outlook weakened further at the end of January, with declines in global trade data and new orders inventory driving the drop.
Chart of the Week
Chart courtesy of Royce & Associates. Sources: Royce, FactSet, as of 12/31/18. ”U.S. Small-Cap” is represented by the Russell 2000 Index, and “International Small-Cap” by the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) All Country World Index (ACWI) ex USA Small Cap. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged, and not available for direct investment. Index returns do not include fees or sales charges. This information is provided for illustrative purposes only and does not reflect the performance of an actual investment.
International Small-Caps: Bigger Pond
Chart of the Week
Market Snapshot
U.S. Economy: Odd Jobs, but...
February's jobs report disappointed at the top, but the angels were in the details; China's growth cast a long shadow; Europe's central bank went full dovish.
Featured Insights
Around the Curve
Brexit: Beginning of the End? or...
Is the Brexit story about to end, or about to begin?
Mid Week Bond Update
Brexit Pulse: Mostly Steady
Sailing into Brexit's uncharted waters, the UK economy is largely shipshape; High-yield energy bonds reflect uncertainty over crude oil prices; TIPS yields reflect falling inflation expectations in the shadow of the FOMC's latest report.
Homebuilders Are Worth Watching
Strong economic fundamentals have allowed homebuilders to maintain decent growth and outperform the broad market.
Brexit: The Paradoxical Pound
The British pound seemed to enjoy the current impasse; Italy considered joining China's Belt and Road Initiative on commerce and infrastructure; U.S. economic data was less than encouraging; China and the U.S. agreed to continue agreeing.
Around the Curve
U.S. Consumers: How are they Doing?
Consumer sentiment and sales are tightly tied, and related to the interest consumers pay.
U.S. Economy: Odd Jobs, but...
February's jobs report disappointed at the top, but the angels were in the details; China's growth cast a long shadow; Europe's central bank went full dovish.
Taking the Temperature: European Politics 2019
Europe's political tensions pose questions for investors; Martin Currie's Michael Browne rates the risks to stability posed by the biggest EU economies now.
Reform vs Populism - India's Election
India’s ruling political party, the BJP, remains the front-runner ahead of this year’s election but may have seen its popularity peak. What are the implications for investors if it fails to win enough votes to govern on its own?
Housing Indonesia's Population Boom
A sharply rising population and a government directed move to boost housing in Indonesia is highly favourable for domestic concrete producers.
Mid Week Bond Update
Sovereign Bonds: The ESG Factor
A timely look at how ESG principles might factor into sovereign debt analysis; bond investors got some upside news on the U.S. economy; China's latest goals could benefit debtholders.
Around the Curve
Of Elephants, Mice and Emerging Markets
The trade tensions between China and the U.S. affect EM economies as well as the world's larger trading blocs.
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