U.S. Economy: Stay in Front of the Business Cycle


The coronavirus pandemic has unleashed unprecedented market volatility with the ClearBridge Investments Recession Risk Dashboard turning red in April signaling a recession was underway. In early June, the National Bureau of Economic Research announced that economic activity peaked in February leading the beginning of the first U.S. recession in over a decade.  As a result, the ClearBridge Investments Recovery Dashboard was introduced in Q2 to help identify conditions that have been historically instrumental in forming durable economic and market bottoms. This dashboard is comprised of nine indicators that fall into three key elements necessarily for a lasting recovery: Financial, Economic, Confidence. Click on each tab for a different view of the Recovery Dashboard data.

U.S. Recession Recovery 

  • 9 variables have historically foreshadowed a durable recovery
  • The overall signal suggests the economy has started a new economic expansion
     
Recession dashboard


Data as of June 30, 2020

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades. 
Source: The National Bureau of Economic Research 

Sources: ClearBridge Investments, BLS, Federal Reserve, Census Bureau, ISM, BEA, American Chemistry Council, American Trucking Association, Conference Board, and Bloomberg. The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard was created in January 2016. References to the signals it would have sent in the years prior to January 2016 are based on how the underlying data was reflected in the component indicators at the time.

U.S. Recession Recovery by Comparison

  • 9 variables have historically foreshadowed a durable recovery
  • The overall signal suggests the economy has started a new economic expansion
     
U.S. Recession Recovery by Comparison chart


Data as of June 30, 2020

Sources: ClearBridge Investments, BLS, Federal Reserve, Census Bureau, ISM, BEA, American Chemistry Council, American Trucking Association, Conference Board, and Bloomberg. The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard was created in January 2016. References to the signals it would have sent in the years prior to January 2016 are based on how the underlying data was reflected in the component indicators at the time.

U.S. Recovery Case Dashboard

Case Study: 2007-2010
 

the lead up to '08 recession graph

 

Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, Census Bureau, ISM, BEA, American Chemistry Council, American Trucking Association, Conference Board, and Bloomberg.


Stay Updated


Recession Recovery: Stay Ready with Our Economic Updates

Financial professionals please register with your business email address for our timely economic updates, which include dashboard updates, supporting commentary and invitations to our quarterly webcast events.


Resources


Anatomy of a Recession Program Overview

This brochure provides an overview of the Anatomy of a Recession program, how to use it to enhance your client conversations, and the resources available.


Anatomy of a Recession Presentation

View the latest comprehensive slide deck. 


Anatomy of a Recession Presentation – Short Version

Take a look at the latest abridged Economic and Market Outlook slide deck.




Insights

All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please see each product’s webpage for specific details regarding investment objective, risks, performance and other important information. Review this information carefully before you make any investment decision.