Market Outlook

Market Outlook:
Growth’s Last Hurrah?

Central bank policies, trade negotiations and geopolitical tensions could move markets
in the months ahead, but still-solid economic fundamentals may help keep both U.S. and
global growth positive, even if slower than in recent months.  

 “Although downside risks to the global outlook persist, our base case is that central banks will maintain a highly accommodative posture, global growth will be resilient and inflation will moderateIn this environment, we believe spreads across global credit markets should continue to grind tighter relative to government bonds. Emerging markets, though volatile, should outperform.”

-- Western Asset
 

 “The U.S. economy is at a crossroads: soft patch versus recession on the horizon. Regardless of the outcome, history would suggest that equities will continue to move higher in the coming months accompanied by an uptick in volatility. We want to tread lightly in areas most at risk from both a trade perspective and a slowdown in global growth

-- ClearBridge Investments
 

There is reason to be positive about China. Valuations are reflecting much of the uncertainty about the trade situation and longer-term secular growth opportunities are now being mispriced. We see the inclusion of Chinese A shares in major indexes as likely to drive the Chinese equity market forward in terms of corporate governance and a greater focus on ESG factors.”

-- Martin Currie
 

 “Small-caps historically have tended to struggle relative to large-caps when yields are falling as well as in periods of slowing economic growth. If one or both of those factors reverse in the coming years, and history suggests they should, we would also expect small-caps to reassert leadership.

-- Royce & Associates
 

“Certain risk factors could cause the growth rate to decelerate, the biggest being an insufficient stimulus response from policymakers in China and the U.S., particularly if the bilateral trade continues to deteriorate. The return of U.S. dollar strength during a prolonged risk-off period would also have a [negative] effect on the domestic and global economies”

-- Brandywine Global
 

“Nationally, a positive macro environment and healthy property fundamentals have supported solid investment performance for privately held U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) investment performance. Nearly ten years into this cycle, the CRE sector has continued to offer steady income and good portfolio diversification.” 

-- Clarion Partners
 

 “In our view, there is little chance that the global economy will be pushed into a recession …thanks a looser U.S. monetary policy and Chinese stimulus starting to find traction.  After all, the U.S. consumer continues to be in fine form.

-- RARE Infrastructure
 

“While volatility expectations, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), remain contained below its historical average, increased uncertainty could spark bouts of volatility similar to those experienced in the February and December 2018 corrections, and in May 2019

-- QS Investors
 

“The expectations of future cuts have supported risk assets after a challenging month of May. Equities, bonds and gold all rallied sharply. Despite the rally, it is difficult to paint a positive long-term picture for risk assets. The trade war effects are just beginning to be felt and will negatively impact corporate earnings as well as growth in China and its trading partners.

-- EnTrust Global

Investment in real estate entails significant risks and is suitable only for certain investors as part of an overall diversified investment strategy and only for investors able to withstand a total loss of investment.

Forecasts are inherently limited and should not be relied upon as indicators of actual or future performance.

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