US Economy: Anatomy of a Recession
Anatomy of a Recession: How close could we be to the next recession – and what should we watch for in the months ahead?
U.S. Economy: Ready for a Change in the Weather?
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Economic conditions are shifting, but the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard still points to expansion rather than recession.
Though trade war tensions could sidetrack investors, history suggests markets should rally after midterm elections – with recession risks low going into Trump's third year in office.
None of the catalysts behind the recent pullback have changed the larger backdrop for the market. Fundamentals remain solid, and we believe the current pullback has largely run its course.
Our Recession Risk Dashboard continues to signal that the likelihood of a pullback in the next 12 months is low – a view supported by recent data on the volume of freight shipped via trucks.
The positive economic momentum that lifted equities over the past year should continue into 2018, with higher interest rates and inflation posing the biggest risks, notes ClearBridge Investment Strategist Jeff Schulze.
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