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June 17, 2013
"We won't know who's swimming naked until the tide goes out."
THE WEEK IN REVIEW...
SIGNS OF THE TIMES:
Retail Sales in U.S. Increased More Than Forecast in May – Bloomberg
Inflation at 53-Year Low Belies U.S. Demand Vigor – Bloomberg
S&P revises U.S. credit outlook to 'stable' from negative – Reuters
U.K. Industrial Output Increased on Mining in April – Bloomberg
World Bank Forecasts Slower but Smoother Growth – New York Times
CHART OF THE WEEK:
A turn for the better—rising rates could mean an improving economy
Real 10-year US Treasury yield and the velocity of money, Mar 2003 – June 11, 2013
Source: Bloomberg. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The graph above is for illustrative purposes only and is not reflective of an actual investment. Real 10-year US Treasury yield is a measure of the yield adjusted for inflation. It is derived from the yield of 10-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), issued by the US, and designed to track US inflation. Money Zero Maturity (MZM) is a measure of the liquid money supply within the economy; it represents currency in circulation and certain non-interest-bearing checking accounts, less time deposits, plus all money market funds. MZM velocity is calculated by dividing nominal GDP by the level of MZM, and can be thought of as the rate of turnover in the money supply.
The bottom line:
Context and perspective:
...AND THE WEEK AHEAD:
GLOBAL ECONOMIC CALENDAR: June 16 – June 22
Europe, UK, Africa, Mideast
Asia Ex Japan & Pac Rim
India: trade balance
New York Fed manufacturing survey, foreign securities purchases (TIC data),4 homebuilder optimism
Canada: foreign securities purchases
Eurozone: labor cost index
Italy: trade balance
Norway: trade balance
Russia: GDP, industrial production
China: house prices
India: interest rate decision
South Korea: producer prices
Consumer prices, housing starts, building permits, weekly retail sales, Cleveland Fed median consumer prices
Germany: economic sentiment
Russia: retail sales, unemployment rate
UK: consumer prices, retail prices, producer prices
Industrial production; capacity utilization, trade balance
Hong Kong: unemployment rate
New Zealand: current account
Mortgage applications, interest rate decision
Canada: wholesale sales
Mexico: household spending
Switzerland: economic expectations
Russia: producer prices
South Africa: consumer prices
New Zealand: GDP
Initial jobless claims, leading economic indicators, Philadelphia Fed survey, existing home sales, Fed balance sheet, money supply
Mexico: retail sales, wholesale sales
Brazil: unemployment rate
Eurozone: manufacturing & services sector surveys, consumer confidence
Germany: producer prices, manufacturing & services sector surveys
France: manufacturing & services sector surveys
Italy: industrial sales & new orders
Switzerland: trade balance
Norway: interest rate decision
UK: retail sales, industrial trends orders
Hong Kong: consumer prices
"Quadruple witching"; expiration date of four classes of options and futures contracts
Canada: consumer prices, retail sales
Brazil: current account, foreign direct investment
Eurozone: current account
Italy: wage inflation
UK: public sector net borrowing
Colombia: industrial production
Sources: Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Financial Times, Reuters, US Dep't of Labor Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Federal Reserve, Market News International
1 Market News International, June 13, 2013.
2 Quoted by Bloomberg, June 12 2013.
3 Gross Domestic Product ("GDP") is an economic statistic which measures the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.
4 The Treasury International Capital system (TIC) is a US Treasury Dep't program which keeps track of flows of funds between the US and other countries.
The opinions and views expressed herein are not intended to be relied upon as a prediction or forecast of actual future events or performance, or a guarantee of future results, or investment advice.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
Foreign securities are subject to the additional risks of fluctuations in foreign exchange rates, changes in political and economic conditions, foreign taxation, and differences in auditing and financial standards. These risks are magnified in the case of investments in emerging markets.
U.S. Treasuries are direct debt obligations issued and backed by the "full faith and credit" of the U.S. government. The U.S. government guarantees the principal and interest payments on U.S. Treasuries when the securities are held to maturity. Unlike U.S. Treasury securities, debt securities issued by the federal agencies and instrumentalities and related investments may or may not be backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. Even when the U.S. government guarantees principal and interest payments on securities, this guarantee does not apply to losses resulting from declines in the market value of these securities.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities ("TIPS") are bonds that receive a fixed, stated rate of return, but they also increase their principal by the changes in the CPI-U (the non-seasonally adjusted U.S. city average of the all-item consumer price index for all urban consumers, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics). TIPS, like most fixed income instruments with long maturities, are subject to price risk.
Yields and dividends represent past performance and there is no guarantee they will continue to be paid.
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Commodities contain heightened risk that include market, political, regulatory, and natural conditions and may not be suitable for all investors Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against market loss.
This document is for information only and does not constitute an invitation to the public to invest. You should be aware that the investment opportunities described should normally be regarded as longer term investments and they may not be suitable for everyone. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested, and can be affected by changes in interest rates, in exchange rates, general market conditions, political, social and economic developments and other variable factors. Past performance is no guide to future returns and may not be repeated. Investment involves risks including but not limited to, possible delays in payments and loss of income or capital. Neither Legg Mason nor any of its affiliates guarantees any rate of return or the return of capital invested. Please note that an investor cannot invest directly in an index. Forward-looking statements are subject to uncertainties that could cause actual developments and results to differ materially from the expectations expressed. This information has been prepared from sources believed reliable but the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed and is not a complete summary or statement of all available data. Individual securities mentioned are intended as examples of portfolio holdings and are not intended as buy or sell recommendations. Information and opinions expressed by either Legg Mason or its affiliates are current as at the date indicated, are subject to change without notice, and do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual investors. The information in this document is confidential and proprietary and may not be used other than by the intended user. Neither Legg Mason nor any officer or employee of Legg Mason accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published without prior written permission from Legg Mason. Distribution of this document may be restricted in certain jurisdictions. Any persons coming into possession of this document should seek advice for details of, and observe such restrictions (if any).
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Issued and approved by Legg Mason Investments (Europe) Limited, registered office 201 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3AB. Registered in England and Wales, Company No. 1732037. Authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Client Services +44 (0)207 070 7444. This document is for use by Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties in EU and EEA countries. In Switzerland this document is only for use by Qualified Investors. It is not aimed at, or for use by, Retail Clients in any European jurisdictions.
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